Monday, February 15, 2016

FED interest changes as a tool for coercion?

In the past several years, I have increasingly run into arguments, something to the effect of

``
1) US interest rates ebb and flow with some kind of cycle,
2) when it goes down, cheap US dollar is made available to the rest of the world,
3) which developing countries, including countries like China, excessively consume (borrow),
4) and this essentially becomes pretty much a decoy because
5) when Fed increases rates, capital outflows from those countries almost instantaneously, creating capital flights.
6) Knowing this mechanism, US government is taking advantage of it to `tame' rising powers.''

I don't know who's spreading this kind of thing, but this is just a BS.

True, it's a straightforward story, that contains some drama appealing to people.

But in this story, only 1) and 2) are consistently true and, thus, the inference 4) and 6) that are based on them are just wrong.

3) is wrong, because `excessively consumption' happens only rarely and typically not in the countries that can pose any significant politco-economic threat to US. (e.g., Brazil).

5) reversal of capital flows does happen, but that hasn't necessarily created capital flights.

Most importantly, the big assumption this false story is rooted on is absolute non-sense.

Fed enjoys significant degrees of political independence from the US government, as is a typical central bank of an advanced economy (otherwise, inflation fighting is difficult). It does not accommodate the WH's foreign policy goals that diligently! In other words, whatever happens to emerging markets as a consequence of rate hikes, it's more likely to be an unintended one rather than deliberately orchestrated one.


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